Tactical Planning of the Oil Supply Chain: Optimization under Uncertainty

The oil industry is increasingly interested in improving the planning of their operations due to the dynamic nature of this business. Decisions made at the oil chain differ in the activity range (spatial integration) and planning horizon (temporal integration). This paper purpose is to address the spatial integration under uncertainty in the oil chain at the tactical planning level and proposes a mathematical model to maximize the profit of this chain. The model is formulated as two-stage stochastic program, where uncertainty is incorporated in price and demand parameters. An industrial scale study from the Brazilian industry was conducted. The Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) and the Value of the Stochastic Solution (VSS) – 1.55% and 13.76% of the wait-and-see solution – indicated the benefit of incorporating uncertainty in the planning and demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The centralized coordination (spatial integrated) provided a better utilization of the available resources.